NEWBERRY — According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in the City of Newberry has dropped from 10,887 in 1990 to 10,268 in 2014 — a difference of 619 people or approximately 5.7 percent. But is that a cause for concern?
“We are aware of it but I think it’s a fairly insignificant number,” said Rick Farmer, director of Newberry County Economic Development. “I’m not worried about small trends, I worry about big, long-term trends.”
While Farmer is not overly concerned with this modest decrease he did say the question of why Newberry’s population is dropping while the state’s population is increasing is worth asking.
“One of the things I would look into is what are the job opportunities like? Is this a high unemployment community?” Farmer asked.
The answer to that question is actually no, Farmer said, which interestingly can actually hamper the growth of a community.
“Industries coming in, their number one concern is always, ‘Can we find the people we need to be successful in this community?’” said Farmer.
Newberry County has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the entire state at 5.1 percent, very close to the 4 percent figure Farmer said traditionally represents full-employment.
“When you get to a 4 percent unemployment rate, pretty much everyone in your community who wants a job has a job,” he said.
While depopulation can be harmful to the health of a community, rapid growth can create an entirely different set of problems.
Farmer used the example of Horry County, a fast-growth community before the Great Recession in 2008, which saw builders constructing houses at a fast rate while housing prices inflated due to high demand.
When the economy recessed, Farmer said many people found themselves, for example, owning a house for which they paid $500,000 that was suddenly worth only $300,000.
“So you don’t really want to be a fast-growth community either. You want to be somewhere in the middle — manageable, smart growth is the best place to be,” Farmer said.
Another example is Lexington, one of the fastest growing counties in the state, which has not adjusted its infrastructure to facilitate its ballooning population causing massive traffic congestion.
While the city population is slightly down, Newberry County has actually grown by about 9,000 people over the last 40 years.
The city has not shared in this growth, however, due to stagnant city limits, said City Manager Al Harvey.
“The laws in the State of South Carolina make it very difficult for municipalities to annex new territory,” he said. “There’s a lot of growth around the city we would love to pick up but unlike North Carolina, which empowers municipalities to annex under very strict circumstances, we don’t have the advantage of such legislation.”
Another potential challenge to the city’s population growth is a concept called “brain drain,” which Farmer explained occurs when young people in a community (non-taxpayers) receive an education (requiring tax dollars) then relocate to begin their professional careers and contribute tax money to another community.
“That’s a problem all small, rural counties face,” Farmer said.
However, Farmer did say Newberry is better off than most of the state’s rural counties based on its proximity to Columbia which offers a manageable commute for many residents who work in the city.
Another advantage Newberry has over other rural counties is a public school system that has been rated excellent by the State Department of Education.
“That’s something a lot of counties would kill for because that’s a key quality-of-life factor,” Farmer said.
Assistant City Manager Matt Dewitt said the city would love to see more young families moving to Newberry and what they are currently doing with the community’s parks represents an effort to attract, in part, that particular demographic.
To further the goal of keeping young people in the community Mayor Foster Senn created the Junior Leadership program which is composed annually of 25 students who have been nominated by their school or community as leaders.
“Our aim is to encourage and equip young people for leadership roles in the future and introduce students to various aspects of Newberry by touring businesses and meeting with community leaders,” Senn said.
Another key factor in a city retaining/attracting young people is the types of businesses it features. Half Full and Pee Dee Outfitters are among several businesses thriving on that front.
“I hear good reports from the businesses that are successfully reaching the younger audience and millennials that have found their hometown to be a good place to shop and dine,” Senn said.
While exciting businesses can certainly increase the vitality of a community, in the end it’s all about opportunity.
“Populations always follow opportunity. It’s true of anything mobile. Animals follow food,” Farmer said.
As that applies to economic development, Farmer said understanding that you can’t leave things up to chance is crucial.
“You have to strategize. You have to implement your strategies and try to shape the future instead of just taking the future as it comes to you,” he said.